Analyst Explains Why He's Bearish On Tilray And Aurora Cannabis, Recommends MSOsPosted by On


GLJ Research founder Gordon Johnson joined Benzinga’s PreMarket Prep show on June 23. During the discussion, Johnson weighed in on Canadian cannabis stocks, which have made a major comeback since the market bottom in March.

Johnson said the best data on the Canadian cannabis market is from Stats Canada, and recent trends are not encouraging.

“In March, Canadian cannabis sales skyrocketed. What happened? Everybody got scared. They thought we were going to be locked in for a long time, so people stocked up on inventory,” Johnson said.

Cannabis Stocks Rally

As a result, cannabis investors thought the Canadian market had finally reached a turning point after sales growth softened throughout 2019. Canadian cannabis stocks, including Tilray Inc (NASDAQ: TLRY) and Aurora Cannabis Inc (NYSE: ACB) surged higher on the March sales data.

“So then, fast forward and we got April sales data last week. Guess what? Sales down in April,” Johnson said.

Given the large cannabis inventory levels in Canada, Johnson said cannabis stocks need consistent growth in sales or cannabis prices will face significant pressure. New cannabis store openings were down in April and cannabis prices have been down in June as well.

“There’s a lot of optimism priced into these stocks. Aurora is trading at an EV-to-sales multiple of 5.5x. The MSOs in the U.S., who actually generate positive EBITDA, are trading at less than half that. So I think what happens is Q2 numbers come out, and I…

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