The next four to six months will be tumultuous for the cannabis sector, pricing pressure will continue and about 50% of companies with Canadian licenses are facing bankruptcy. Those were some of the talking points at day two of the ICR Conference in Orlando, Fla., according to MKM analyst Bill Kirk, who highlighted the subdued tone at the event in an early note to investors. “With years of reckless spending, less growth than expected, limited access to capital markets, excess supply, and uncompetitive pricing (to illicit market), we generally agree,” Kirk wrote. “And while there may be opportunities on the other side of the looming shakeout, we can’t get excited about sector-wide upside.” The analyst named Acreage and Flowr as two companies in attendance that he rates as buy. Acreage stock
offers a wide discount to the deal price (the company will be acquired by Canopy Growth Corp.
as soon as cannabis restrictions in the U.S. are lifted) and is improving profitability as states mature, he wrote. Flowr
has fewer supply issues in the Canadian premium market and has better mix exposure to Portugal and Germany, he wrote. Kirk has neutral ratings on Tilray
“It is very likely the negative outlook shared at ICR will come to fruition. Acreage and Flowr are opportunities within this set-up largely because they operate outside many of the issues,” said the note. The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF has fallen 41% in the last 12 months, while the S&P 500
has gained 26%.