Is CBD still worth it? Bets for Selic in 2024Posted by On

Money Times simulated the yields of a CDB at 100% of the CDI based on market Selic projections (Image: Reuters/Adriano Machado)

With the year of 2024 approaching, the attention of the financial market turns to the projections of the Selic rate, the basic interest rate of the Brazil.

According to the Focus Bulletin, the market expects the Selic to end the year 2024 at up to 9.50%, supporting the perspective that the central bank (BC) will continue the cycle of interest cuts that began in August 2023, which should affect the income of CBDs (Bank Deposit Certificates), but in return, increase investors’ appetite for risk, with good returns on the stock market.

These estimates reflect not only internal economic conditions, but also external influences, such as the monetary policy of the U.S and global dynamics. Still, the sustainability of these projections depends significantly on domestic fiscal policies and political stability.

The Central Bank, under the command of Roberto Campos Netohas the challenge of balancing economic growth with price stability, in a scenario that continues to be unpredictable due to both internal and external factors.


Current consensus is Selic at 9.50%

The expectation of a reduction in the Selic rate for the year 2024 is certain, with projections varying close to what the Focus newsletterwhich sees the interest rate at 9.50% at the end of next year.

In a recent report from the Itaú BBAMario Mesquita,…

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